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Bid-to-Actual Job Profit Variance Analyzer

Compare estimated and actual revenue, direct cost, profit, margin, labor efficiency, and category variance with transparent possible-driver diagnostics.

Planning estimateFormula v1.0.0Reviewed July 31, 2026

What it answers

Find the profit leakage in dollars and margin points without pretending a rule can prove causation.

Runs locally

Local workspaceInputs are not sent anywhere

Revenue

Quoted and earned revenue

Actual revenue is the base quote plus approved changes plus other collected revenue. Uncollected revenue is flagged but not deducted from earned revenue.

Base quoted revenue$Approved change-order revenue$Other collected revenue$Uncollected amount$Optional; triggers a collection diagnostic without changing earned revenue.Target margin%Optional; used for the TARGET_MARGIN_MISSED diagnostic.

Job costs

Estimate versus actual

Enter labor hours separately from labor cost. Cost variance is always actual minus estimate.

Estimated and actual job-cost categories
Category	Estimate	Actual
Labor hours	Estimated labor hourshours	Actual labor hourshours
Labor cost	Estimated labor cost$	Actual labor cost$
Materials	Estimated materials$	Actual materials$
Subcontractors	Estimated subcontractors$	Actual subcontractors$
Equipment	Estimated equipment$	Actual equipment$
Vehicle / mobilization	Estimated vehicle / mobilization$	Actual vehicle / mobilization$
Permits / fees	Estimated permits / fees$	Actual permits / fees$
Callback / warranty	Estimated callback / warranty$	Actual callback / warranty$
Allocated overheadLeave both sides blank for gross-profit analysis. Entering either side switches results to operating profit.	Estimated allocated overhead$	Actual allocated overhead$
Other	Estimated other$	Actual other$

Your result will land here.

Enter the quoted revenue and estimate-versus-actual job costs. Approved change orders are included explicitly.

Formula methodology

Input contract

What goes into the result

Base quote and approved change revenue
Estimated and actual labor
Estimated and actual cost categories
Optional uncollected revenue
Optional allocated overhead

Output contract

What comes back

Estimated vs. actual revenue and cost
Profit and margin
Profit leakage
Margin-point change
Category variance
Possible leakage drivers

Worked examples

Follow the denominator.

These are hypothetical teaching examples, not market-rate recommendations. Your result uses only the values you enter.

Example 1

$10,000 quote with $6,000 estimated cost

$1,000 approved change · $7,500 actual cost

$500 profit leakage · −8.18 margin points

Example 2

Allocated overhead is included

The same comparison deducts the entered overhead amounts

Outputs relabel as operating profit and operating margin

Included in the math

Approved change-order revenue
Labor-hour and labor-rate variance
Category ranking
Optional allocated overhead mode
Accessible comparison table

Not modeled unless entered

Claims about why a variance happened
Accounting-ledger reconciliation
Tax
Automatic data from a CRM or bank

Edge cases & common mistakes

The formula can be right while the cost basis is wrong.

Ignoring approved changes

Actual revenue should reflect approved scope changes before a cost overrun is interpreted as leakage.

Treating a diagnostic as proof

The tool identifies possible drivers from entered variance; it does not know what happened in the field.

Mixing gross and operating margin

When allocated overhead is entered, the result is operating—not gross—profit and margin.

Plain-language answers

Frequently asked

What does a negative margin-point change mean?

The actual margin is lower than the estimated margin by that many percentage points.

Why does the tool say possible driver?

A numerical variance can point to where the result moved, but it cannot establish the operational cause without human review.

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